California voters are increasingly rejecting a high-profile November ballot measure designed to levy a one-time tax on billionaires to fund healthcare programs, according to a poll released by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies. Half of likely voters indicated they plan to vote against Proposition 40, while 42% expressed support. The figures represent a notable drop for a proposal crafted by a prominent healthcare union to offset an estimated $100 billion in federal healthcare cuts approved by President Trump and congressional Republicans.
Mark DiCamillo, director of the poll, noted that the surge in opposition is broad-based and reaches across nearly all major segments of the electorate. The downward shift follows a heavy spending campaign by opponents of the wealth tax, who have contributed nearly $368 million for television and digital advertisements airing widely across sports broadcasts and syndicated television. By comparison, supporters of the levy have raised $36 million.
Proposition 40 proposes a one-time 5% tax on the assets of billionaires who were California residents as of Jan. 1, with specific exceptions. The measure has divided state Democrats. Gov. Gavin Newsom and other critics argue the levy will encourage wealthy residents to depart California, further straining a state budget reliant on top earners. Conversely, the state Democratic Party and progressives have backed the initiative, with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) describing it as a measured tax necessary to assist residents affected by federal funding reductions.
Partisan and generational splits define the electorate on Proposition 40. While Republican voters overwhelmingly oppose the measure, nearly two-thirds of Democrats support it, though over a quarter oppose it. A generational divide is also evident, with 60% of voters aged 65 and older opposing the tax, while more than two-thirds of voters under 30 support it. A separate poll released Tuesday by the Public Policy Institute of California similarly found 52% of likely voters opposed the measure and 46% in favor.
The billionaire tax campaign is tied to two companion initiatives, Propositions 41 and 42, which are designed to undercut the wealth tax through state tax law changes and spending restrictions. Proposition 41 would mandate audits of new state special taxes and bar new taxes exempt from spending limits, while Proposition 42 would prohibit new taxes on retirement holdings, individually owned assets, and personal savings. Both measures would nullify the wealth tax if passed and if they receive more votes. A plurality of voters now oppose both measures, reversing leads they held six weeks prior.
In contrast to the proposed wealth tax, voters demonstrated solid backing for Proposition 3, which seeks to make permanent an existing higher income tax rate on high earners to fund education. A majority of 54% support maintaining the levy, while 37% oppose it. DiCamillo attributed the disparity to the fact that Proposition 3 preserves an existing revenue generator of $5 billion to $15 billion annually rather than introducing an entirely new asset-based tax.
Voters are also weighing Proposition 39, a Republican-backed initiative that would require voters to present government-issued identification for in-person voting or supply a special PIN or the final four digits of their Social Security number for mail-in ballots. The measure would further obligate the secretary of state and county election officials to verify voter citizenship using government data sources such as Social Security and jury records. Nearly 60% of likely voters oppose Proposition 39, with opposition spanning majorities of registered voters with no party preference or minor party affiliations.
Additional measures on the 14-item statewide ballot face uncertain prospects as undecided voters lean toward opposing unfamiliar proposals. Proposition 43, restricting local governments from enacting certain special taxes without a two-thirds majority, is opposed by 46% and supported by 36% of likely voters. Proposition 4, which would repeal a ban on public campaign financing, shows voters evenly divided at 41% on each side, with 18% undecided.
The survey of 2,787 registered California voters was conducted online in English and Spanish between Oct. 19 and Oct. 25, carrying a margin of error of approximately 3 percentage points.
