Private polling commissioned by Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico indicates his high-stakes contest against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is substantially tighter than public surveys suggest, according to a report published Saturday.
While prominent public surveys released in recent months gave the Austin Democrat a lead—including a September poll by and Siena University and an October CNN and SSRS survey both showing him ahead by six points—other recent polling has placed the candidates either tied or separated by a narrow two-point margin within the margin of error. Individuals familiar with the campaign confirmed that Talarico’s internal numbers align more closely with these tighter outcomes.
Despite the competitive figures, campaign insiders cautioned that their internal metrics may be failing to fully capture the sentiment among rural conservative voters who support Donald Trump. Paxton has drawn his strongest backing from this demographic, alongside white evangelical Christians and Texas voters aged 65 and older—the precise coalition that Talarico’s camp fears its internal sampling underestimates.
Luke Warford, chairman of the Travis County Democratic Party, assessed the candidate’s electoral standing cautiously. “I think James has at most a 50 percent chance of winning,” Warford said, adding that even a coin-flip scenario represents a remarkable position for a Texas Democrat.
Polling throughout the cycle has reflected a shifting landscape. A survey in early October gave Talarico a slim two-point advantage at 51% to 49%, while a subsequent poll by the network showed the two candidates deadlocked at 49% apiece.
Talarico, a 37-year-old former middle-school teacher, has anchored part of his path to victory on strong turnout within Latino communities. However, Democratic canvassers working in San Antonio and El Paso reported encountering durable loyalty to Trump and skepticism toward Talarico, particularly among Latino men.
During the closing stretch of the campaign, Talarico has worked to counter persistent attack ads featuring past remarks he has characterized as “cringey,” including previous statements describing God as “nonbinary” and asserting the existence of six biological sexes.
Campaign associates acknowledged that a sufficient concentration of committed Trump supporters remains across Texas to swing the outcome in Paxton’s favor should they turn out in force on Tuesday. The matchup stands as the most expensive non-presidential contest on record, with combined spending exceeding $500 million, a total bolstered by Elon Musk routing $158 million to political action committees backing Paxton.
