Democrats hold leads across every statewide contest in Texas, according to a poll released by 254 Labs following a survey of 1,000 registered voters conducted between October 21 and 26. The poll was weighted to likely-voter targets provided by 254 Labs, incorporating early-voting turnout figures.
In the U.S. Senate race, the survey places Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton 51% to 43%, with 5% of voters undecided. Talarico leads among independent voters nearly two to one at 60% to 31%, with an additional 5% undecided within that demographic. Among voters expressing higher enthusiasm for the November election compared to previous cycles, Talarico leads Paxton 57% to 41%.
Other Democratic statewide candidates hold narrower advantages in the poll. Gina Hinojosa leads Greg Abbott 49% to 46% in the gubernatorial race. Vikki Goodwin leads Dan Patrick 48% to 45% for lieutenant governor. Nathan Johnson leads Mayes Middleton 47% to 45% in the attorney general contest, and Jon Rosenthal leads Bo French 47% to 43% in the race for railroad commissioner.
The shifting political landscape in Texas drew a campaign visit from Donald Trump, who traveled to the oil-producing state to support Paxton and other Republican candidates in an effort to fend off what could mark the first statewide Democratic victory in 32 years. Trump scheduled two stops at opposite ends of the state amid high fuel prices that have emerged as a central issue ahead of the November 3 congressional elections, where control of one or both houses of Congress is at stake.
Trump appeared before a tanker holding Venezuelan crude moored near the Port of Corpus Christi, marking the arrival of oil received under a Washington agreement following the deposition of Venezuela’s former leader. Trump stated the deal grants the U.S. access to a fifth of Venezuela’s crude reserves, with White House officials indicating the oil is slated for refineries owned by ExxonMobil and Citgo.
During a later stop in Lubbock, Trump announced an Environmental Protection Agency proposal to roll back Biden-era methane regulations for oil and gas producers. The administration stated the plan would eliminate requirements for companies to fix leaky equipment and regularly check wells for escaping methane, terminate a program utilizing outside groups to report large methane leaks, and ease restrictions on the routine burning off of gas at oil wells. Trump stated the rollback would save consumers and energy producers $45 billion in costs, unlock vast quantities of natural gas, and produce 210 million barrels of oil.
Paxton’s campaign has faced historical hurdles, including a 2015 securities-fraud indictment and a 2013 impeachment by the Texas House. Prosecutors dismissed the criminal case in 2024 following an agreement, and the Texas Senate acquitted Paxton in his impeachment trial. Tech billionaire Elon Musk and other donors have contributed substantial financial support to assist Paxton’s campaign in the final weeks before the election.
During his Texas visits, Trump criticized Talarico over energy, immigration, and transgender rights policies, referring to him with a nickname that the Democratic candidate subsequently adopted as a fundraising tool by selling related merchandise. Talarico responded to the criticism by characterizing his campaign as a challenge to the existing political system.
