Republicans hold a 31-point lead over Democrats among Jewish voters on the congressional ballot, according to a recent nationwide poll conducted by McLaughlin & Associates. The findings point toward a potential shift within a demographic group that has historically voted heavily in favor of Democratic candidates.
The survey results show that 64 percent of Jewish voters surveyed support Republican candidates for Congress, while 33 percent back Democrats. Pollsters John and Jim McLaughlin detailed the findings in an article published by their firm, highlighting what would represent a stark departure from the wide margins traditionally enjoyed by Democrats among Jewish electorates.
At the same time, the pollsters acknowledged important limitations regarding the data. McLaughlin & Associates surveyed 1,000 likely midterm voters nationwide, with Jewish respondents accounting for four percent of the overall sample. The firm did not publicly disclose the precise number of Jewish participants or the specific margin of error associated with that subgroup.
This national snapshot aligns with localized data pointing to a narrowing Democratic advantage in key regions. CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten reported earlier this month that the party’s lead among Jewish voters on House ballots in New York has declined significantly, dropping from 49 percentage points during the 2022 midterms to 13 points this year.
The McLaughlin survey also examined voting preferences across several other major religious categories. Protestants favored Republican candidates 51 percent to 43 percent, while Catholic voters narrowly backed the GOP with 48 percent compared to 46 percent for Democrats. Evangelical Christians, a group that overlaps with other Christian classifications, supported Republicans by a wider margin of 56 percent to 37 percent.
Conversely, Democrats maintained leads among non-religious and certain minority religious demographics. Respondents identifying as secular, atheist, agnostic, or religiously unaffiliated backed Democrats 51 percent to 43 percent. Muslim voters supported Democrats 63 percent to 37 percent, though they represented two percent of the total survey sample.
In their analysis, the pollsters drew comparisons between their congressional ballot findings and voting patterns from the 2024 presidential election. They noted that the Republican lead among Catholics in the current poll is narrower than Donald Trump’s 20-point victory margin with that group in 2024. Similarly, the firm contrasted its eight-point Republican advantage among Protestants with Trump’s 27-point lead among Protestants and other Christians in 2024 exit polls.
