Israel faces a protracted period of political uncertainty following an election that challenged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hold on power and raised the possibility of Jewish and Arab parties forming an unprecedented alliance to unseat him. Final election results could be finalized by Thursday evening, though no clear winner is expected to emerge from the vote.
With 88% of votes counted, Netanyahu’s Likud party secured 20.7% of the vote, while his leading challenger, centrist former military chief Gadi Eisenkot and his Yashar party, garnered 16.2%. Arab-led parties captured 15% of the vote in a historic showing. Turnout reached nearly 78%, marking the highest participation rate since 1999.
Projections from local media indicate that neither Netanyahu’s nor Eisenkot’s coalition blocs will reach the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Projections point to 53 seats for Likud and its allies, 48 seats for Yashar and its allies, and 19 seats for Arab-led parties.
Elad Naveh, control manager at the Central Elections Committee, stated that the counting of an estimated half-million absentee ballots from military personnel and diplomats will continue until Thursday evening, though they are not expected to significantly alter the outcome.
The election results reflect deep-seated public unease over Netanyahu’s alliance with far-right figures, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, whose support showed signs of decline. Voters also expressed frustration over military draft exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox Jewish population in a war-weary nation still grappling with the fallout from the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, attack. Likud’s vote share dropped from 23.4% in the 2022 election.
Amid the stalemate, Netanyahu warned on Wednesday against the formation of a “dangerous government” incorporating Arab parties, whose constituents represent 20% of Israel’s population. Meanwhile, Likud claimed without providing specific evidence that Tuesday’s election was “stolen” by Arab parties and asked Israeli authorities to investigate. The Central Elections Committee reported that election irregularity complaints were significantly lower than in previous cycles.
Despite leading the vote count, Likud may face hurdles in forming a governing coalition. While Israel’s president, Isaac Herzog, typically tasks the leader of the largest party with forming a government, he is not legally required to do so. Herzog urged political leaders to avoid another electoral cycle, stating that efforts must be made to prevent a new vote.
The most prominent path to a parliamentary majority involves Eisenkot partnering with Arab-led parties, a politically sensitive prospect due to deep-rooted divisions over Palestinian issues and national identity. Eisenkot has left the door open to such a partnership under specific conditions, including the recognition of Israel as a Jewish state and Hamas as an extremist group. While some potential partners have ruled out an alliance with Arab parties, others may reconsider to force Netanyahu from office. Another frequently discussed option is a unity government pairing Netanyahu and Eisenkot, while minority governments relying on external legislative cooperation remain another possibility.
Arab citizens of Israel are descendants of Palestinians who remained after the nation’s creation in 1948. They frequently encounter discrimination and suspicion regarding their solidarity with the Palestinian cause—tensions that heightened following the events of Oct. 7, despite Arab citizens also being among the killed and abducted.
Advocates for cross-block cooperation argue that political paradigms must shift. Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats party, which supports incorporating Arab-led parties into a coalition, emphasized that political fears must be addressed. If no coalition can be forged, Israel could face early elections next year, echoing the political deadlock that triggered five elections between April 2019 and November 2022.
