In a potential turning point for Israeli politics, exit polls released late Tuesday suggest Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition has lost its parliamentary majority following a high-stakes election. While the projections indicate a sharp rebuke of the long-serving leader, they do not offer an immediate or easy path to power for his chief challenger, former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot.
The exit polls show Eisenkot’s opposition bloc securing between 52 and 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset. Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious coalition is projected to take just 50 seats, a dramatic decline from the 64 seats the bloc won in the 2022 elections. Arab-majority parties are expected to hold the balance of power with a projected 17 to 18 seats.
For Netanyahu, the results represent a loss of 14 seats, a figure that suggests a significant portion of the electorate has moved away from his governing coalition in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks. Despite the blow to his bloc, Netanyahu’s individual Likud Party remains the largest single faction in the Knesset, projected to win one or two more seats than Eisenkot’s Yashar Party. However, in Israel’s parliamentary system, the ability to form a coalition of 61 seats is the only metric that determines who serves as prime minister.
Eisenkot, responding to the projections, characterized the night as a historic shift for the country. He argued that the results reflect an “unequivocal lack of confidence” in the current government, specifically citing its responsibility for the security failures of Oct. 7. He stated that the projected numbers represent a victory for what he termed the “Zionist, pro-state majority” of Israeli citizens.
“I will act immediately to implement the people’s verdict, replace Netanyahu’s government, and establish a Zionist government committed to military service, as soon as possible,” Eisenkot said in a post-election statement.
However, the path to a functional Eisenkot-led government is narrow. To reach the 61-seat threshold, Eisenkot would likely need to swear in a minority government supported from the outside by Arab parties. This remains a deeply contentious strategy within the Israeli political center and right. It is currently unclear whether all of Eisenkot’s diverse political partners would agree to such an arrangement, or if the internal friction would lead to another period of political deadlock.
The election was marked by an exceptional level of voter engagement, with turnout reaching its highest level in four decades. The high participation followed a campaign defined by existential warnings from both sides, with Netanyahu’s allies and Eisenkot’s supporters each arguing that a victory for the other would lead the nation toward catastrophe.
While Eisenkot has signaled a desire to mend strained diplomatic relationships abroad and pursue a different domestic course, he has also vowed to maintain a hawkish stance on national security matters. This blend of traditional security credentials and a promise of institutional reform appears to have been the central driver of his bloc’s gains.
As official results begin to trickle in, the focus shifts to the small parties and the final tallies that could shift a seat or two in either direction. Until a clear path to 61 seats is established by either leader, the prospect of a minority government or a prolonged period of coalition negotiations remains the most likely outcome for a deeply divided electorate.
