Democratic optimism is building around Senate races across the country in traditionally conservative states, but Iowa continues to present a stark challenge for the party. Although President Trump carried the state by 13 percentage points in 2024, the contest between Democratic challenger Josh Turek and Republican Representative Ashley Hinson has developed into an intense dead heat.
Mr. Turek, a moderate state representative and two-time Paralympic gold medalist in basketball, has gained momentum while traveling across rural hospitals, farms, and businesses. However, he faces significant headwinds, including the drag of a battered national Democratic brand in a state dominated by Republicans since 2016. Strategists in both parties note that Ms. Hinson entered the contest with established name recognition, substantial campaign cash, and notable political talent.
“We were afraid of Hinson,” said Derek Eadon, an Iowa-based Democratic strategist, acknowledging that keeping pace with her in the polls is a notable feat for Mr. Turek. “I do feel like Josh could pull it off, but it’s going to be close.”
Ms. Hinson has navigated a rising tide of voter dissatisfaction with Mr. Trump and national Republican policies in the state. In response, Mr. Turek has focused on economic pressures, highlighting issues such as high gas prices, Medicaid cuts, tariff-related costs, and the war in Iran during campaign stops.
“I hear Iowans tell me, ‘Josh, I’m struggling to keep food on the table, a roof over my head, pay my electric bill,” Mr. Turek said during a town hall in Sioux City. “And now with this war in Iran, I’m struggling just to keep gas in my tank. It’s not the America that we were promised.”
Financial investments reflect the high stakes in the state. According to the media tracking firm AdImpact, the Iowa Senate contest has driven $260 million in advertising spending. Democrats outspent Republicans on advertising in Iowa during October, while national party figures have stepped up their involvement. Former President Trump scheduled a second rally in the state to boost turnout, and Republican super PACs have invested heavily for Ms. Hinson.
Mr. Turek has benefited from running alongside Rob Sand, a second-term state auditor and centrist gubernatorial nominee who has established a clear lead in polls. A late-September survey indicated that Mr. Sand ran 12 percentage points ahead of Mr. Turek, pointing to a potential segment of split-ticket voters who may support Mr. Sand while backing Ms. Hinson.
Celinda Lake, a Democratic strategist, projected a victory for Mr. Sand while characterizing the Senate race as a tossup. A Turek win “could easily happen, but Iowa’s gotten really Republican,” she noted.
Before launching his congressional bid, Mr. Turek was a relatively obscure state representative from Council Bluffs who flipped a red-leaning state House district by six votes in 2022. National Democratic advertisements have highlighted his athletic achievements and personal background, which some Republicans privately admit makes him a formidable candidate.
At the same time, Mr. Turek has worked to distance himself from the national party. According to polling data, 53 percent of Iowa voters view the national Democratic Party as too far to the left, whereas only 30 percent view Mr. Turek that way. He has frequently emphasized his legislative record of voting with Republicans and has diverged from national party stances on border security and social policy. Hannah Goss, a spokeswoman for Mr. Turek, pointed to Ms. Hinson’s personal wealth, allied super PAC support, and congressional voting record as vulnerabilities.
Republicans have pushed back aggressively, with Ms. Hinson frequently criticizing Mr. Turek over his financial backing from super PACs aligned with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. At a recent rally, Ms. Hinson asserted that Mr. Schumer “will stop at nothing to drag him across the finish line, so we have to stop him.”
Both campaigns have adjusted tactics as voting approaches. Mr. Turek released an advertisement addressing past legislative votes on gender issues, stating his opposition to males competing in female sports and noting that the practice is already illegal under state law. Meanwhile, Ms. Hinson has sought to project independence from Mr. Trump, releasing an ad addressing her procedural votes in Congress.
Voters expressed mixed motivations at the ballot box. John L. Brown, a 71-year-old retired lawyer and registered Republican, said he planned to vote Democratic for the first time because he felt national party leaders had stopped listening to ordinary Iowans. Conversely, Nick Hall, a 29-year-old police officer and three-time voter for Mr. Trump, viewed moderate Democrats as a welcome alternative to Washington hyperpartisanship, stating that crossing party lines “might set the example of, ‘Republicans can work with Democrats,’ and get back to working together, not hating each other.”
Lauren French, a spokeswoman for the Schumer-aligned Senate Majority Provider super PAC Senate Majority PAC, affirmed that Iowa “remains an incredibly tight race” as both sides commit resources through the final hours of the campaign.
