President Donald Trump continues to maintain strong backing among white evangelical Protestant voters, but polling data reveals a noticeable erosion in support as the United States approaches the midterm elections on November 3, 2026. A survey released this month by and Ipsos indicates that Trump’s approval among white evangelicals has dropped to 63 percent, down from 77 percent when he retook office in January 2025.
This 14-percentage-point decline among a vital conservative voting bloc closely mirrors a broader drop in the president’s national standing. Trump’s overall approval rating has fallen to an all-time low of 31 percent, marking a 16-point overall decline among Americans. Despite the downward trend, white evangelicals remain the only demographic tracked by that maintains support exceeding 60 percent as the midterm contest nears.
The shifting numbers carry high stakes for the Republican Party as it battles to defend its majorities in Congress. Democrats currently remain favored to take control of the US House of Representatives, while their prospects of flipping the Senate have gained momentum amid widespread voter discontent over affordability and the US-Israeli war on Iran. With Republicans relying heavily on their most dedicated base voters to counter potential Democratic surges, any softening of evangelical enthusiasm poses a strategic challenge.
Campaigning on Wednesday in South Carolina—a stronghold within the southern Bible Belt where exit polls showed six in 10 Republican voters were white evangelicals during the 2024 presidential primary—Trump sought to energize the base. Although Trump carried the state by nearly 18 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, recent polls indicate that Republican Senate candidate Darline Graham holds only a narrow lead over Democratic challenger Annie Andrews with just two weeks remaining before the vote.
During his South Carolina rally, Trump focused heavily on cultural and social issues that resonate with conservative Christians, including policies concerning transgender individuals. He used an anti-transgender slur while addressing Andrews, characterizing her as a fanatical transgender activist despite her moderate stance on the issue within the Democratic Party.
Historically, white evangelical voters have served as a cornerstone of Trump’s political coalition, accounting for roughly a third of his winning electorate in the 2024 general election according to surveys by the Public Religion Research Institute and validated-voter analysis by the Pew Research Center. Approximately 80 percent of white evangelical voters cast ballots for Trump in 2024, a demographic that comprises about 13 percent of the overall US population. Throughout his political career, Trump has retained backing from prominent evangelical leaders despite facing various controversies and allegations of sexual misconduct and extramarital affairs, all of which he denies.
Beyond South Carolina, evangelical voters and shifting political dynamics in Midwestern states like Iowa and Kansas, as well as Southern states such as Texas, are expected to play decisive roles in determining whether Republicans can retain control of the US Senate. The electoral landscape also features mainline Protestant faith leaders challenging Republican incumbents in high-profile races, including United Methodist Church pastor Adam Hamilton in Kansas and Presbyterian seminarian James Talarico in Texas.
These voting trends highlight distinct political divisions within American Protestantism. While white evangelicals continue to form a reliable conservative voting block, other faith groups follow different trajectories. Black Protestant evangelicals, for instance, remain a steadfast and foundational Democratic voting bloc.
Political analysts and campaign strategists remain uncertain whether the measurable dip in white evangelical enthusiasm will ultimately depress conservative turnout on November 3, particularly given that the president himself is not on the ballot.
