Republican Senator Mike Rounds of South Dakota holds a commanding lead of more than 20 points in his Senate race, according to polling data conducted in mid-October by Quantus Insights. The survey shows Rounds capturing 57% of the vote compared to 36% for independent challenger Brian Bengs within the reliably conservative state.
The wide margin outpaces several prior surveys of the race, some of which had previously indicated a narrower contest or even a slight advantage for Bengs. South Dakota is one of three states—along with Idaho and Nebraska—where national Democrats have thrown their backing behind an independent Senate candidate in an effort to contest traditional Republican strongholds. Among those three contests, political observers view the race in Nebraska as the most competitive.
Bengs previously ran as a Democrat against Senate Majority Leader John Thune in 2022, an election he lost. For his current independent bid, Bengs maintains that if he wins, he intends to form an independent caucus rather than align with either the Republican or Democratic caucuses in Washington.
The strong standing for Rounds in the mid-October survey suggests potential boundaries for any broader Democratic gains in the upcoming November elections, particularly in deep-red territory where incumbent Republicans retain substantial backing among the electorate.
