Republican Representative Byron Donalds holds a 4-point lead over Democrat David Jolly in the race for Florida governor, according to a poll published by a top-rated pollster less than a week before the midterm elections. The survey showed Donalds capturing 48 percent of voter support compared to Jolly’s 44 percent.
The same survey also gave Republican Senator Ashley Moody a 6-point edge over Democratic challenger Angie Nixon, showing 50 percent to 44 percent. The findings underline the Republican Party’s continued advantage in Florida, a former presidential battleground that has drifted rightward over the past decade.
While Democrats entered the midterm cycle hoping to make Florida competitive amid national economic headwinds and declining presidential approval ratings for the incumbent administration, polling indicates the state remains a challenging landscape for the party. The upcoming vote will test whether Democrats can regain ground in a state that former President Donald Trump carried by 13 points in 2024, up from a 3-point victory in 2020 and a 1-point win in 2016.
The gubernatorial matchup features distinct voter dynamics across political affiliations. While Donalds leads overall, Jolly maintains an advantage among independent voters, leading 52 percent to 35 percent. Crossover support remains modest in the survey, with Jolly winning 6 percent of registered Republicans and 4 percent of Democrats indicating support for Donalds. Name recognition also differs between the candidates: 22 percent of respondents said they were unsure of or had not heard of Donalds, compared to 34 percent for Jolly. Overall, 44 percent viewed Donalds favorably and 34 percent unfavorably, while Jolly received a 36 percent favorable rating and a 30 percent unfavorable rating.
Donalds represents Florida’s 19th District in southwest Florida and has served in Congress since 2020. Jolly is a former Republican who represented Pinellas County in Congress from 2014 to 2017. While Donalds is recognized as a close ally of Donald Trump, he has occasionally broken from him on policy matters, noting in previous interviews that the former president does not expect him to be a “yes man.” Donalds’ campaign altered its website last month to remove several references to Trump, a move campaign representatives attributed to a focus on state-level issues including affordability, insurance costs, and government transparency rather than a distancing strategy.
Other recent statewide polling aligns closely with the latest results. RealClearPolitics aggregates show Donalds leading Jolly by 5 points. An earlier YouGov/Univision poll conducted from October 2 to 15 among 825 voters gave Donalds an 8-point lead at 50 percent to 42 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. An Echelon Insights poll of 515 likely voters from October 16 to 23 showed Donalds ahead by 6 points, 50 percent to 44 percent, with a 5-point margin of error. For the Senate contest, RealClearPolitics aggregates give Moody an 8.4-point lead over Nixon. The Echelon Insights poll showed Moody up 8 points at 51 percent to 43 percent, while the YouGov survey showed her up 5 points at 49 percent to 44 percent. Moody is the former state attorney general who was appointed to the Senate seat after Marco Rubio assumed a cabinet position in the federal administration in 2025. Nixon is a Florida state representative and democratic socialist.
The broader political realignment in Florida stems from multiple demographic and political shifts. Republicans have expanded their voter registration advantage significantly, with state data from the Florida Division of Elections showing 5,678,755 registered Republicans, 4,133,397 registered Democrats, and 3,345,188 voters with no party affiliation as of September 30. Democrats held a registration advantage in the state as recently as 2020. Key factors in the shift include Republican inroads among Latino voters in areas like Miami-Dade County, combined with an influx of millions of new residents arriving from more conservative states during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Prediction markets currently favor Republican candidates across both major statewide contests. Kalshi and Polymarket figures as of Thursday gave Donalds a 69 to 71 percent probability of victory, while Moody registered an 89 to 91 percent chance on the same platforms. Prediction markets aggregate real-money wagers into probability estimates that fluctuate based on polling, fundraising, and campaign developments.
Campaign activity has intensified in the final stretch. Donald Trump Jr. is scheduled to join Donalds at a rally in Hialeah, a high-population Cuban American city near Miami, while former President Trump prepares for a rally in Daytona Beach. Campaigns for both gubernatorial contenders have emphasized voter mobilization to avoid late losses. In voting procedures, Florida polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., with state data indicating that nearly 1.7 million voters cast mail-in ballots and approximately 2.2 million participated in early voting as of Thursday.
