In the race for Michigan’s seat in the U.S. Senate, Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed has moved ahead of Republican opponent Mike Rogers, according to new polling data of likely voters. The survey, conducted in late October 2026, shows El-Sayed capturing 51.4% of the potential vote, while Rogers trails with 45.1% support. This 6.3-point lead for the Democrat sits outside the survey’s 4.0% margin of error, suggesting a significant advantage for El-Sayed as the campaign enters a critical phase.
The data reveals a high level of commitment among voters for both candidates, though El-Sayed appears to have a more solidified base. When asked about the intensity of their choice, 43.4% of respondents said they were “definitely” voting for El-Sayed, with an additional 4.9% stating they would “probably” vote for him and 3.1% saying they currently lean in his direction. In contrast, 40.3% of voters are “definitely” behind Rogers, with 4.2% saying they would “probably” support him and only 0.6% indicating they lean toward the Republican candidate. Approximately 3.6% of the electorate remains undecided or declined to answer.
While El-Sayed holds the lead in a head-to-head matchup, both candidates face challenges with their personal favorability ratings among the general public. El-Sayed currently holds a favorability rating of 42.2%, while 44.8% of voters view him unfavorably. Rogers has a lower favorability rating of 32.2%, with nearly half of the respondents—49.2%—reporting an unfavorable impression of the candidate. Despite these underwater numbers, both men enjoy nearly universal name recognition across the state. El-Sayed is known by 98.7% of likely voters, while Rogers is recognized by 96.8%.
Voter familiarity with the candidates is high, leaving little room for either campaign to define themselves to a fresh audience. Only 1.1% of those surveyed said they had never heard of El-Sayed, while 2.8% said the same of Rogers. Among those who knew the candidates but had not formed a firm positive or negative opinion, 11.7% held no opinion of El-Sayed and 15.4% held no opinion of Rogers.
The survey was conducted between October 19 and October 22, 2026, and reached 600 likely voters across Michigan. The methodology utilized live-operator telephone interviews, with 85% of the responses coming from cellphone users and 15% from landline telephones. The poll maintains a 95% level of confidence and carries a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points.
