In the borderlands of the Rio Grande Valley, the political momentum that helped return Donald Trump to the White House two years ago is facing a sharp and visible reversal. Along a dusty road in Edinburg, near the southern tip of Texas, dozens of riders on horseback and drivers in pickups recently held a cabalgata, a traditional horse procession, with a message that would have seemed unlikely just two years ago: a call to elect Democrat Bobby Pulido to Congress.
The shift is not merely anecdotal. In 2024, Trump captured 48% of the Latino vote nationwide, a high-water mark for the Republican Party. However, new polling suggests that support is cratering. The president’s approval rating among Latino registered voters has plummeted to 24%, down from 38% at the start of his second term. In Texas’ 15th Congressional District, which Trump carried by 18 percentage points in 2024, the frustration is palpable among those who previously fueled his victory.
Economic grievances are at the forefront of this voter migration. David Lopez, a 54-year-old owner of a truck and trailer repair shop in McAllen, voted for Trump in 2024 because of his reputation as a businessman. Today, Lopez says the administration’s tariffs have caused his business to drop by approximately 20% compared to last year. Standing with his horse, Black Jack, during the Edinburg procession, Lopez was clear about his change of heart. “I am voting Democrats all the way,” he said. “Trump is no longer doing a good job.”
Beyond tariffs, voters report a crushing rise in the cost of daily life, from the diesel that powers the region’s commercial fleets to weekly grocery bills. The economic strain is compounded by a local construction industry that has slowed significantly. Builders in the region say projects are stalling because their workforce has been depleted by aggressive immigration raids and deportations.
While many Latino voters in the region supported tighter border security, the reality of the current enforcement approach has alienated former supporters. Gloria Rodriguez, a 50-year-old social worker in Edinburg, has spent months coordinating services for hundreds of children whose parents or caregivers were detained or deported. She says the trauma inflicted on local families is widespread, noting that her 15-year-old daughter, Angelina, now urges her to vote Democratic to protect her friends from deportation.
The political landscape is increasingly defined by candidate trust rather than party loyalty. Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, notes that Texas Latinos are looking for politicians who demonstrate personal investment in their communities. This dynamic is central to the campaign of Bobby Pulido, a Latin Grammy winner whose slogan is “Not team red, not team blue — South Texas I am team you.”
Pulido is challenging Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz, a staunch Trump ally who rose to power on the 2024 wave. De La Cruz has pushed back against the narrative of a Democratic resurgence, arguing that her record includes cutting taxes and supporting Border Patrol. She dismissed Pulido as a product of a “corrupt system,” asserting that her focus remains on bringing down the prices of gas and groceries.
However, voters like Nidia and Arnulfo Olivarez, who backed Trump in 2024, say they are now looking for candidates they can trust on a personal level. While they are backing Pulido, they remain undecided about other races on the ballot, including the high-profile Senate contest between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. “We want to see who continues to show up in the area,” Nidia Olivarez said. “That matters to us.”
For others, the shift is a rejection of the current Republican identity. Luis Sustaita, a 49-year-old mariachi and music store owner from Weslaco, previously voted Republican but says he no longer recognizes the party. “There are no old-school Republicans anymore. It is all MAGA,” Sustaita said. “They used to be about the people. Trump is all about himself.”
As the November 3 election approaches, the Trump administration has attempted to minimize the polling shifts. Trump told reporters earlier this week that he believes he is “doing great” with Hispanic voters, citing his 2024 performance. When asked about those who feel betrayed by his immigration and economic policies, the president’s message was blunt: “We have to do what we have to do.”
Whether that stance will hold the GOP’s 2024 gains remains to be seen, but in the Rio Grande Valley, the sentiment of “la raza”—the people—appears to be moving in a different direction. Tina Treviño, 61, expressed a sentiment shared by many at the Edinburg rally, suggesting that the current system is failing the community and that Chicano power is needed to force a change.
