House Speaker Mike Johnson Dismisses Midterm Polls, Citing Faulty Analysis and Under-Sampled Republicans

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has pushed back strongly against pre-election polling that suggests Democrats hold an advantage heading into the midterm elections, asserting that the surveys are undermined by flawed methodology.

Appearing on television on Sunday, Johnson dismissed the predictive forecasts as incorrect. The exchange followed a presentation of network power rankings that projected a challenging landscape for Republicans, indicating that even under optimistic scenarios for the GOP, Democrats were forecasted to retain control of the chamber.

When questioned about his rejection of these forecasts, Johnson pointed to what he characterized as systemic flaws in modern polling operations. He claimed that recent weeks had exposed nationwide polling organizations for issuing flawed numbers and noted that more traditional research groups have acknowledged a persistent failure to properly account for conservative voters.

To support his argument, Johnson referenced media reporting from late October indicating that a substantial majority of recent pre-election polls had under-sampled Republican respondents by an average of roughly four points. According to the House Speaker, shifting behavioral trends among conservative voters have rendered traditional polling models increasingly inaccurate.

“Republicans are no longer responding to polls,” Johnson said during the interview.

Drawing on his own observations from the campaign trail, Johnson described extensive travel across the country, detailing visits to 21 states and 39 congressional districts over a three-week period. He emphasized that his stops specifically targeted competitive swing districts where Republicans are actively working to flip Democratic-held seats.

Johnson reported high enthusiasm at campaign events, comparing the current voter turnout to the engagement levels seen during the 2024 election cycle. He recounted asking audiences of hundreds of supporters whether they had participated in any public opinion surveys over the preceding six months, noting that only a tiny fraction of attendees raised their hands.

“I’m telling you—these polls are off, all of them, because they’re using faulty analysis,” Johnson concluded.