Dozens of California lawmakers, environmental advocates, and policy experts gathered in Los Angeles this month to mark the 20th anniversary of the landmark Global Warming Solutions Act. While the pioneering legislation established a science-driven framework for curbing greenhouse gas emissions when it passed in 2006, new state data show California is currently falling behind its future reduction targets.
When Assembly Bill 32 was signed into law, it initiated a statewide effort to inventory and regulate emissions through legally mandated caps, paving the way for the state’s signature cap-and-invest carbon market program. The law originally required returning emissions to 1990 levels by 2020—a benchmark California achieved six years ahead of schedule, dropping annual output down from about 431 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent.
However, subsequent benchmarks require much steeper reductions. The next major target mandates cutting emissions to 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. According to the state’s latest greenhouse gas emissions inventory released in September, California is only about halfway toward that goal, with annual emissions down roughly 4% to 346 million metric tons in 2024. Because emissions data are published on a two-year time lag, the figures reflect recent progress but also highlight the steep climb ahead.
Meeting the 2030 mandate requires cutting an additional 86 million metric tons of carbon. An analysis by the nonprofit Next 10 projects that at the current pace, California will not hit its 2030 target until 2034. The longer-term 2045 goal—aiming to slash emissions by 85% below 1990 levels—is even further off track, requiring steep annual reductions of about 8.8% beginning in 2030, which is more than double the state’s current pace.
Despite the lag, emissions reductions have not completely stalled. The 3.9% cut recorded in 2024 marked an improvement from a 3% drop in 2023, representing the largest annual reduction outside of the pandemic and recession years of 2020 and 2008. Next 10 founder F. Noel Perry noted that the state is moving in the right direction. Stephanie Leonard, the group’s director of research, explained that the 2024 reduction significantly exceeded the average annual drop of 1.2% recorded between 2006 and 2016. This progress was driven largely by cleaner transportation, cleaner electricity, and lower emissions from homes as the state incorporated more electric vehicles, appliances, and renewable energy sources like wind and solar.
State officials and policy experts warn that achieving future goals will prove challenging amid shifting political dynamics and economic hurdles. Over the past two years, federal policy shifts have eliminated electric vehicle rebates, revoked stringent tailpipe rules, and challenged California’s target of banning new gasoline-powered car sales by 2035. Lindsay Buckley, a spokeswoman for the California Air Resources Board, stated that federal interference threatens to derail state momentum, particularly since transportation remains the largest source of climate and air pollution in California.
Affordability and infrastructure constraints present additional hurdles. Susan Kennedy, former chair of the California Public Utilities Commission and chief of staff to former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, described affordability as the single biggest barrier to future progress. The state’s grid operator estimates it needs $62 billion in transmission upgrades over the next decade to meet mandated climate goals, alongside $50 billion for water infrastructure and other urgent needs. Clean energy investor and former gubernatorial candidate Tom Steyer pointed out that federal policy has shifted from subsidizing clean technology toward supporting fossil fuels.
Former Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez, who co-authored AB 32 with former state Sen. Fran Pavley, emphasized the need to balance aggressive climate action with economic practicality so that residents are not left behind. Meanwhile, state leaders emphasize that California’s broader economy has continued to expand, with gross domestic product up 40% since the law’s passage, positioning the state as the nation’s fourth-largest economy.
While California continues to lead state-level climate initiatives, a United Nations report released Wednesday indicates that the U.S. as a whole increased its emissions last year due to federal policy rollbacks, including withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement and renewed support for coal power generation. Global projections now place the world on track for 4.7 degrees of warming above preindustrial levels by 2100, exceeding the 2.7-degree target adopted in the 2015 Paris pact.
