IMF and OECD Warn Rapid Artificial Intelligence Expansion Risks Widening Global Economic Divide
Artificial intelligence could provide a significant boost to global economic growth, but international financial leaders warn that poorer countries, smaller companies, and younger workers risk missing out entirely. Officials from the International Monetary Fund and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development issued the warning during discussions at the IMF and World Bank 2026 Annual Meetings held at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center in Bangkok, Thailand.
The global economic debate unfolds as massive investments in advanced computer chips and AI infrastructure continue to support overall economic activity and drive stock markets to record highs. At the same time, rising borrowing costs have intensified scrutiny over whether major corporations can generate sufficient returns on their escalating spending commitments.
For developing economies, the primary obstacle centers on basic capacity. Era Dabla-Norris, deputy director of the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, noted that the critical question is whether developing nations possess the ability to adopt and diffuse artificial intelligence effectively. Speaking to the Global Markets Forum, Dabla-Norris explained that effective AI adoption could add up to 0.5% to annual global growth over the medium term. However, she cautioned that concrete aggregate productivity evidence observed thus far remains much less pronounced.
A similar dichotomy appears across advanced economies. The OECD estimates that artificial intelligence could add between 0.4% and 1.2% to annual productivity growth across its member nations. Yet, OECD chief economist Stefano Scarpetta pointed out that workplace implementation significantly lags behind consumer adoption, with only limited integration seen within core business functions. He emphasized that a wide gap currently persists between theoretical exposure to the technology and its actual operational use.
Employment markets face simultaneous disruption as widespread integration moves forward. The IMF estimates that approximately 40% of jobs worldwide could be exposed to artificial intelligence, even as reports of corporate layoffs gather momentum. Major global firms are increasingly turning to technology and automation to trim operational costs and bolster financial returns. Financial institutions and technology firms alike have announced workforce reductions tied to efficiency drives, while other major corporations implement performance-focused downsizing on a global scale.
Dabla-Norris highlighted that younger generations and entry-level employees face acute vulnerability if artificial intelligence absorbs the routine tasks and foundational responsibilities through which workers have traditionally gained vital professional experience. Without targeted improvements in access to reliable electrical power, advanced digital infrastructure, and specialized skills, international officials caution that the technological shift threatens to exacerbate existing economic divides between wealthy nations and developing economies.
